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Jun 30th 2017, 12:13 AM   #61
 Transported's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Portland

  2006 FZ1, 1999 R1
VW's core business seems to be cheating customers, lying to government regulators and destroying the planet for personal profit. I can see why a Ducati would not be a good fit for them.
Jun 30th 2017, 01:13 AM   #62
 liberpolly's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Seattle

  Ducati Diavel, Triumph Street Twin
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
The reality is that the entire motorcycle market in the US shrunk in 2016, by 2.1% overall.
While "Harley-Davidson retail motorcycle sales in the U.S. were down 5.7 percent".

So overall market share of Harley decreased as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
So, again, with Harley's market share in the US increasing in 2016
Only "in 601+ cc market", while decreasing overall. People just switched to smaller, lighter bikes. If you can call 600 cc bikes "small"...
Jun 30th 2017, 07:25 AM   #63
 ShootPDX's Avatar
 
  May 2016
  Happy Valley area (Clackamas)

  SV650S Silver, HD Sportster
Quote:
Originally Posted by liberpolly
While "Harley-Davidson retail motorcycle sales in the U.S. were down 5.7 percent".

So overall market share of Harley decreased as well.

Only "in 601+ cc market", while decreasing overall. People just switched to smaller, lighter bikes. If you can call 600 cc bikes "small"...
Nobody in the market for a Road King or Dyna suddenly went..."Hey, I'll go with the Duke 390 instead" So it's not really a "switch". Their core market of rich white guys is dying off and they have made virtually no inroads in attempting to market to younger affluent Ducati-esque customers.

Harley sat on a heroic amount of unsold 2016 inventory...such that they delayed the launch of the Milwaukee Eight bikes by many many months. HDFS lost millions of dollars. Harley recalled 57,000 brand new 2017 motorcycles for a (potential) bad crimp on an oil line...at least 4 riders were injured when oil sprayed on the rear tire and caused a crash. There are no amount of mental contortions that can possibly paint a rosy picture of what's going on at HD...
Jun 30th 2017, 08:21 AM   #64
 WarpShatner7's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  The spunk-filled wanksock formerly known as Portland

  R1200ST, CB350
Bikes like the Roadster and the Street 500 and 750 seem pretty clearly efforts to reach customers susceptible to the Harley cachet but not a good fit for their traditional bikes. The Roadster seems aimed at North Americans who want the look, sound and brand but also want to ride the shit out of it like they would a Triumph twin or an R Nine T.

The "Street" models seem aimed at a more European or Japanese buyer, who'd like the brand and a hint of the traditional look and feel but not the traditional build or the ecosystem; the buyer who in the past might have been seen on a Magna or Virago.

Where Ducati fits into this I don't know. I don't think it quite does, it's a business diversification to access a market but not with the Harley brand. I suspect they'll run it as a completely separate business.
Jun 30th 2017, 09:27 AM   #65
 liberpolly's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Seattle

  Ducati Diavel, Triumph Street Twin
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShootPDX
Nobody in the market for a Road King or Dyna suddenly went..."Hey, I'll go with the Duke 390 instead" So it's not really a "switch". Their core market of rich white guys is dying off and they have made virtually no inroads in attempting to market to younger affluent Ducati-esque customers.
Yes, this is what I meant
Jun 30th 2017, 09:55 AM   #66
 VeritasImageryNW's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Allyn, WA

  '06 HD Street Bob, '85 Yamaha FJ600, '99 Honda CBR600f4
I'll say it again.

The OVERALL street motorcycle sales in the US dropped in 2016, and as one article pointed out "erasing any ground they had made previously". That means that whatever sales increases of small displacement bikes manufacturers had, it didn't balance out the loses of larger displacement sales. Leading to a net loss overall. With Harley's market share of large displacement bikes (600cc and up) increasing, that means that though it suffered another loss, it actually lost less then everyone else. Again, the overall market is shrinking, with most manufacturers seeing it happen in waves (the one step forward, two steps back way).

So the reality is that all manufactures are struggling to find ways to generate new buyers of larger displacement bikes, not just Harley. For most of the Japanese ones, they used to bank on the sales of 600cc sport bikes, those were their bread and butter. But as those sales are tanking they struggle to find new buyers. And it's interesting to note that one of Honda's key products, the Goldwing, is starting to lose sales to Can-Am.

The US motorcycle market is in trouble, and it is struggling to find its way out. And with international sales surging, chances are the manufacturers may not spend the time to figure out what to do with the US. Heck, Harley sales in the UK actually increased in 2016. Again, this points to the idea that this isn't just a "Harley issue" but a US motorcycle industry issue.

Edited by VeritasImageryNW on Jun 30th 2017 at 09:59 AM
Jun 30th 2017, 12:45 PM   #67
 Sentinel's Avatar
 
  Jun 2016
  Poor Tortured

  2015 Kawasaki Concours 14 - The Origame Dragon
US motorcycle sales are _probably_ declining in part at least because of two factors -



and

Jun 30th 2017, 01:16 PM   #68
 VeritasImageryNW's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Allyn, WA

  '06 HD Street Bob, '85 Yamaha FJ600, '99 Honda CBR600f4
Yep, but only partially agree. Agree completely with the second point, not as many young people doing outdoorsy hobbys.

But regarding the first, the problem isn't the education, it's getting the education in fields that are either non-existent (humanities, female studies, etc), or in areas that don't guarantee a high paying job (business, English, etc). Instead we should be encouraging our young people to get into trade skills (welding, etc.). We have a major skills gap in this country where there are not enough trades workers for the jobs available. There are major jobs available ($50-$60,000 per year to start), but they all entail relocating, and or not very glamorous work.
Jun 30th 2017, 03:27 PM   #69
 liberpolly's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Seattle

  Ducati Diavel, Triumph Street Twin
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
With Harley's market share of large displacement bikes (600cc and up) increasing, that means that though it suffered another loss, it actually lost less then everyone else.
No it doesn't. Harley lost more than everyone else, specifically 5.7% compared with everyone's 2.1%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
So the reality is that all manufactures are struggling to find ways to generate new buyers of larger displacement bikes, not just Harley.
Incorrect. Triumph, for example, is doing just fine. I am sure there are other manufacturers who are fine as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
The US motorcycle market is in trouble, and it is struggling to find its way out.
One year dip does not warrant this assertion yet. Maybe it was just election year effect; or staring recession that got postponed due to outcome of elections. Nobody knows, and one year dip doesn't tell us anything.
Jun 30th 2017, 03:29 PM   #70
 liberpolly's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Seattle

  Ducati Diavel, Triumph Street Twin
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sentinel
US motorcycle sales are _probably_ declining in part at least because of two factors -

I would be more impressed if this poster wasn't weasely mismatching "real value" of wages with the "numeric" cost of college tuition.

Can't you people spot when you're being duped?
Jun 30th 2017, 06:48 PM   #71
 VeritasImageryNW's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Allyn, WA

  '06 HD Street Bob, '85 Yamaha FJ600, '99 Honda CBR600f4
Quote:
Originally Posted by liberpolly
No it doesn't. Harley lost more than everyone else, specifically 5.7% compared with everyone's 2.1%.



Incorrect. Triumph, for example, is doing just fine. I am sure there are other manufacturers who are fine as well.


One year dip does not warrant this assertion yet. Maybe it was just election year effect; or staring recession that got postponed due to outcome of elections. Nobody knows, and one year dip doesn't tell us anything.
Did you completely miss that number. That was an OVERALL drop of 2.1%, not individually. The ENTIRE motorcycle industry saw a loss in 2016.

Remember that though you're beloved Triumph had a great sales increase, we are talking a total of 13,000 bikes. That's less then 10% of Harley's sales on the same year. Even Yamaha, factoring in dirt bikes, Atvs and small displacement street bikes only managed 71,000 sales in the US in 2016. That's not even half of Harley's sales. Honda was the only one who did better in overall sales (including dirt, at, scooters and small displacement) than Harley, with nearly double HD's sales. Remove those machines and they fall well below in sales.

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Jun 30th 2017, 06:57 PM   #72
 VeritasImageryNW's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Allyn, WA

  '06 HD Street Bob, '85 Yamaha FJ600, '99 Honda CBR600f4
It's really not rocket science. If Harley lost 5% in sales but gained in market share, that means that the rest of the market combined had to lose for than 5%. That doesn't mean every one else suffered a loss, but it means that any growth gained by one manufacturer was negated by the loss of another.

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Jun 30th 2017, 09:12 PM   #73
 ShootPDX's Avatar
 
  May 2016
  Happy Valley area (Clackamas)

  SV650S Silver, HD Sportster
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
So the reality is that all manufactures are struggling to find ways to generate new buyers of larger displacement bikes, not just Harley. For most of the Japanese ones, they used to bank on the sales of 600cc sport bikes, those were their bread and butter. But as those sales are tanking they struggle to find new buyers. And it's interesting to note that one of Honda's key products, the Goldwing, is starting to lose sales to Can-Am.
Absolutely none of this makes any sense. Japanese manufacturers haven't relied on the 600cc sales volumes for years. The trend in the industry is adventure bikes. No one I know of says "I was going to buy a new Goldwing...but instead...I think I'll go with something that's not even a motorcycle at all." and there's absolutely no trending or surveys to indicate Can-Am is cannibalizing anyone's sales...'cept maybe those folks making 3-wheelers of some other flavor...right out of the factory...hint...hint...

Honda has the most diversified portfolio of any major motor manufacturer...they make leaf blowers for god sakes...and...well...arguably...cars...they could ride decades of ZERO motorcycle sales per year...and yet...still...they sell 17+ Million units a year...

Why would manufacturers...other than Harley..."struggle" to sell larger displacement bikes? Why not just shut down the lines and build what people are buying? Ninja 300s are selling like hotcakes...so too the R3....and sure...I get it...there's no 38.6% Harley factory margin on those.

The same thing that killed Saturn as a motor company is killing Harley...it's called the Internet. Everyone knows the Sportster motor is a great product...and everyone knows the Twin-cam...in all of its flavors...isn't...people talk...people look in the windows of a service bay...the Milwaukee Eight product launch...with its 57,000 vehicle recall...o-rings missing/not seated...foreign material in the oil pump from the supplier (leading to engine failure and replacement)...excessive oil consumption...engine stalls/factory idle set too low (ostensibly to avoid overheating the motor...BTW..how'd you like to stall...and subsequently crash...some huge bagger in a parking lot at 4MPH?)...The M8...has been...to put it frankly...a nightmare.

Edited by ShootPDX on Jun 30th 2017 at 11:37 PM
Jul 1st 2017, 01:53 AM   #74
 liberpolly's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Seattle

  Ducati Diavel, Triumph Street Twin
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
Did you completely miss that number. That was an OVERALL drop of 2.1%, not individually. The ENTIRE motorcycle industry saw a loss in 2016.

Remember that though you're beloved Triumph had a great sales increase, we are talking a total of 13,000 bikes. That's less then 10% of Harley's sales on the same year. Even Yamaha, factoring in dirt bikes, Atvs and small displacement street bikes only managed 71,000 sales in the US in 2016. That's not even half of Harley's sales. Honda was the only one who did better in overall sales (including dirt, at, scooters and small displacement) than Harley, with nearly double HD's sales. Remove those machines and they fall well below in sales.

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How does anything you wrote contradict anything I wrote?
Jul 1st 2017, 01:55 AM   #75
 liberpolly's Avatar
 
  Jan 2016
  Seattle

  Ducati Diavel, Triumph Street Twin
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
It's really not rocket science. If Harley lost 5% in sales but gained in market share
Only in 601+ cc bikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeritasImageryNW
that means that the rest of the market combined had to lose for than 5%.
Only in 601+ cc bikes.
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